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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.